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Nonfarm Payrolls growth set to slow in April as traders gauge tariffs' impact on hiring
Friday, 2 May 2025 12:52 WIB | ECONOMY |

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

The April employment report will be critical to affirm a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in June amid prospects of US trade deals with its major Asian trading partners and an unexpected US economic contraction in the first quarter of this year. The data could, therefore, have a strong bearing on the US Dollar (USD) performance in the near term.

In a NewsNation Town Hall interview early Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he has "potential" trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of reaching an agreement with China.
Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls to show a 130,000 job gain in April after recording a stellar 228,000 print in March. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is set to stay at 4.2% during the same period.

Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, following a 3.8% increase in March.

Previewing the April employment report, TD Securities analysts said: "Job growth is likely to show no material signs of deterioration in April despite the spectre of high tariffs impacting economic conditions. Indeed, we expect payrolls to decelerate closer to its steady-state following the series' noticeable jump in March."

"The UE rate is expected to stay unaltered at 4.2%, while wage growth likely lost some momentum, posting a 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) increase," they added.

Source: Fxstreet

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